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TD Ameritrade Says US Stock Market Stability is Luring Investors, But Here’s Why the Dow Might Not Bounce Back

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Throughout the previous two weeks, analysts have most often attributed the restoration of Dow Jones to technical elements, expressing skepticism towards the sustainability of the U.S. inventory marketplace rally.

This week, Shawn Cruz, a dealer technique supervisor at $30 billion brokerage large TD Ameritrade, stated that the sentiment within the U.S. inventory marketplace has progressed, particularly amongst fundamental-based traders.

“[Indicators of economic stability are] giving the more fundamental-based investors faith coming back into the market, which is then driving what technical traders are seeing on their screen,” Cruz stated, speaking to The Wall Street Journal.

Can the Dow Jones Rally?

Since December 24, the Dow Jones has initiated one of the spectacular turnarounds in recent times, improving from 21,782.2 issues to 25,411.52 issues inside lower than two months.

dow jones

The Dow has assembled a large restoration since its late-December lows, however it would now not proceed thru to a brand new all-time top.

The Dow Jones used to be prone to coming into a undergo marketplace in mid-December after the Nasdaq Composite recorded a 20 % drop from its all-time top and formally bought a undergo marketplace standing.

The fast expansion of the Dow Jones previously two months has led traders to query the standards of the motion of the U.S. inventory marketplace.

Apart from technical elements, maximum foremost elements reminiscent of geopolitical risks and weak earnings reports from primary conglomerates within the U.S. stay because the core problems for traders.

On February 4, CCN reported that Raymond Jones fastened source of revenue capital markets head Kevin Giddis stated the U.S. marketplace lacks stimulus to develop within the upcoming months.

“There is obviously a separation between where the equity market sees the world and where the bond market sees the world. We don’t know what’ll cause the next recession, but at the same time, you flip it to the other side and you don’t see much that’ll stimulate economic growth.”

In the ultimate seven days, the Dow Jones has retraced from 25,411.52 issues to 25,045.96. Currently, the Dow is prone to falling beneath the 25,000 stage.

To maintain the certain development of the U.S. inventory marketplace in contemporary weeks, Direxion Investments managing director Paul Brigandi stated that it is vital for the marketplace to take care of its momentum.

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Many traders are buying and selling according to sentiment and are allocating capital into the inventory marketplace once more as primary indexes started to get better.

“Momentum is a key component right now. A lot of people are jumping in to get on board,” he stated.

Investors Have to Consider Short-Term Stock Market Risks

Some analysts foresee a continual rally for the Dow Jones. But, others together with Morgan Stanley senior portfolio supervisor Andrew Slimmon worry for the vulnerable company income launched previously 30 days.

Apart from the oil business, which outperformed the expectancies of Wall Street following a decline in the cost of oil, maximum primary industries have struggled.

The monetary sector has carried out particularly poorly within the fourth quarter with maximum banks reducing again on their projected revenues.

Slimmon said:

“I’m worried. As much as companies look like they made fourth-quarter numbers, the 2019 estimates are dropping, and it strengthens my concern.”

With vulnerable company income, no important construction within the U.S.-China industry talks, and the declining euro-zone financial system, the U.S. marketplace is also prone to experiencing a non permanent development reversal.

As emphasised via TD Ameritrade strategist Shawn Cruz and Direcixion investments govt Paul Brigandi, momentum is an important for the U.S. inventory marketplace.

If the Dow Jones fails to maintain balance above the 25,000 stage, a chance of an extra decline may just accentuate and tremendously modify the present sentiment available in the market which stays certain to this date.

In the non permanent, massive volatility within the U.S. marketplace is anticipated, however analysts stay unsure whether or not that might imply a rally to dance again from this week’s losses or an extra drop to December ranges.

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Dow Will Explode Past Record High and Keep Rising: Wall Street Bull

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By CCN Markets: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is set to blow past its record high and keep pushing. That’s the analysis of Christopher Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo.

Harvey believes investors are wrongly building defensive portfolios when they should be bullish on stocks. He sees the Dow going higher on the back of interest rate cuts and strong corporate performance.

“We think the equity move is a little bit deceiving. We think people are really misconstruing it. Everyone is saying ‘oh my goodness we’ve had such a great run, it’s time to take profits.’ But really if you look at it, the market’s flat since the last Fed meeting. So what that tells us [is] a lot of the Fed dovishness, a lot of the expectation for a Fed cut really hasn’t been priced in. That’s why we think equity markets are going to go higher.”

Dow Jones close to record high

Dow Jones futures rose on Monday, putting the flagship index within touching distance of a new record high. At 5.49 am EST, DJIA futures rose 50 points (0.19 percent) to 26,747. It leaves the index just short of its 26,951.81 all-time high.

Dow futures set to open higher on Monday and test record highs. Source: Yahoo Finance

After carving out new highs last week, S&P 500 futures rose 6.75 percent (0.23 percent) in early-trading Monday, indicating another strong start at the opening bell. Nasdaq futures followed suit, rising 24 points (0.31 percent) higher.

Investors are too defensive

As CCN reported, Wall Street investors are rapidly building defensive portfolios as stock markets reach record highs. A survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch revealed that traders are selling risky equities and stockpiling cash at the fastest rate in almost a decade.

One $222 billion wealth management firm, Pictet, is hedging for a large downturn:

“Pictet has shifted to a defensive portfolio strategy, almost doubling its cash holdings to 15 percent this year. A fund of this size typically only holds 5 percent in cash, so Pictet is obviously hedging against a pullback in equities.”

Harvey believes this portfolio rebalancing is a mistake. He says firms are “misconstruing” the current state of the market.

Catalysts for further Dow gains

The Wells Fargo analyst believes that a marriage of low-interest rates and strong corporate growth will push stocks higher. He also said investors haven’t fully priced in the looming interest rate cuts.

He’s got a point. The DJIA is flat between the April 30th Fed meeting and the June 18th meeting, despite a huge shift in sentiment from hawkish to dovish.

Traders are now anticipating a 100 percent chance of an interest rate cut in July. Harvey acknowledged that the trade war with China was still a danger, but he’s optimistic that the G20 meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping will help continue dialogue.

Path to Dow 3,000?

Harvey’s analysis echoes the sentiment from Skybridge Capital’s Troy Gayeski. As CCN reported, Gayeski sees a 25 percent chance the DJIA pushes past 30,000 by the first quarter of 2020. His analysis implies a potential 12 percent upside.

“Even though some of the headlines in the short term are negative, you can’t get too bearish based on the recent trajectory of China-US trade talks. You have to still focus on the strength of the domestic U.S. economy, which is rather robust.”

Like Harvey, he points to low interest rates, strong corporate growth, and the likelihood of investors FOMOing into the market.

Click here for a real-time Dow chart.

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Tron (TRX) Price Explodes 31% in 4-Day Blitz; What’s Next?

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By CCN Markets: Tron (TRX) has entered the list of top ten cryptocurrencies after rising exponentially four days in a row.

The TRX-to-dollar exchange rate established a weekly high of $0.0407 on Sunday, its best since June 4. That took the pair’s highest month-to-date gains to 42.5 percent, including a 31 percent gain noted across the last four daily sessions. At the same time, the Tron’s market capitalization surged to as high as $2.61 billion. At its highest, it was circa $16.752 billion.

Tron (TRX) Price Up 31 Percent in Last 4 Days | Source: TradingView.com, Binance

On a 24-hour adjusted timeframe, Tron outperformed its peers, including ether, XRP, litecoin, and bitcoin cash, by rising more than 6 percent. Only bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization and adoption, managed to come closer to Tron with 2.36 percent gains. At the same time, the Tron-to-bitcoin exchange rate witnessed a 4 percent jump, suggesting that Tron is stronger against bitcoin on an intraday basis.

What Drove Tron Higher?

While TRX appears to be merely tailing the bitcoin price rally like any other altcoins, its surge in the last four days looks different.

The past week saw the TRX market bombarded with a string of mildly optimistic events. First, the Tron Foundation released an upgraded mainnet to introduce “a more lightweight built-in event server with added protocol data check.” Second, the Tron blockchain reported growth in its decentralized application ecosystem by posting higher daily volumes than its close competitors EOS and Ethereum. And third, a New York-based FinTech startup, dubbed as Carbon, recently launched its stablecoin atop its blockchain.

New York Startup Carbon Launches Stablecoin Atop Tron Blockchain | Source: Twitter

Also, with bitcoin lately hitting the $11,000 level and showing signs of retracements, TRX appeared like an ideal asset for intraday hedging, with its set of positive fundamentals.

Opportunities

Tron Price Trending Inside Rising Wedge | Source: TradingView.com, Binance

The TRX price is currently trending higher inside a Rising Wedge, confirmed by at least five reaction highs as resistance and eight similar lows as support. It is likely for the price to extend its upside towards the Wedge Resistance and — then — to pull back towards the Support, thereby creating adequate long/short opportunities in the near-term.

As of now, the Tron rate is testing $0.0414 as an interim resistance level, while eyeing $0.0443 as its upside target. Conversely, a pullback from $0.0414 or below creates a decent short opportunity towards the Wedge Support in red. A breakdown below support, at the same time, brings $0.0268-0.0294 range in view as a downside target area.

Click here for a real-time Tron (TRX) price chart.

This post was last modified on (Eastern Time): 24/06/2019 07:15

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Bitcoin at $20K in 2019 Could Suggest Previous ATH Wasn’t a Bubble, Tom Lee Says

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Bitcoin marked a decisive leg up throughout the past 7 days, gaining more than 18 percent during the period. More importantly, it broke the important psychological level of $10,000, which caused serious hype throughout the entire cryptocurrency community. With this, the popular commentator and chief analyst at Fundstrat Global Advisors, Tom Lee, says that if Bitcoin breaks its previous ATH, this could suggest that it was never actually a bubble.

Was It Ever a Bubble?

In 2017 Bitcoin went on a parabolic move to hit a whopping price of around $20,000. This undoubtedly pinned all eyes on it. However, what followed was a steep correction where the cryptocurrency lost upwards of 85% of its value to drop to around $3,000 in 2018. The sharp increase, followed by an equally sharp decrease, caused many people to believe that the market behavior looked a lot like a bubble.

However, as it turned out, 2019 has so far been rather good for the market. Bitcoin is up more than 250% since January 1st as it’s currently trading close to $11,000.

Speaking on the matter was popular cryptocurrency commentator and head analyst at Fundstrat Global Advisors, Thomas Lee. He said that if we manage to hit the previous all-time high this year, this would suggest that it only took BTC 18-20 months to do so. He made the point that this could mean that the previous parabolic move wasn’t a bubble, as many considered it to be.

If we follow Lee’s chain of thought that 2017’s ATH might not have been a bubble, the most logical conclusion is that the market saw a serious and prolonged correction.

It Can Get Easier From Here

As we said in the beginning, $10,000 was an important psychological barrier for Bitcoin. Many have already argued that it could propel the price even higher. Tom Lee himself outlined a few days back that FOMO could take the cryptocurrency to $20,000 in months.

And while we have yet to see how the price action will develop, we can take a look at what happened last time Bitcoin was trading at the levels it currently is.

As you can see, the pattern is pretty clear. The cryptocurrency is gaining more steam and hype behind it as it appreciates in price. It took it 9 days to get from $8,000 to $9,000 but only 3 minutes to move from $18,000 to $19,000.

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MIOTA Price Prediction Today: Daily (IOTA) Value Forecast – June 24

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  • On the upside, if the bulls break the upper price range, IOTA market will reach the highs of either $0.55000 or $0.60000 price level.
  • The crypto’s price was fluctuating between the levels of $0.40 and $0.50.

IOTA/USD Medium-term Trend: Ranging

  • Resistance Levels: $0.50, $0.55, $0.60
  • Support Levels: $0.45, $0.35, $0.30

Last week the price of IOTA was in a sideways trend. The 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA were sloping horizontally. The crypto’s price was fluctuating between the levels of $0.40 and $0.50. On June 22, the IOTA market was resisted as the bulls tested the $0.5000 upper price range.The crypto’s price fell to the support of the 12-day EMA and commenced a range bound move above the EMAs.

Presently, the crypto’s price is above the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA which indicates that price is likely to rise. On the upside, if the bulls break the upper price range, IOTA market will reach the highs of either $0.55000 or $0.60000 price level. On the other hand, if the bulls fail to break the upper price range, the crypto’s price will continue its range bound move. Meanwhile, the IOTA market is at the oversold region of the daily stochastic but above the 40% range. This indicates that price is in a bullish momentum and a buy signal.

IOTA/USD Short-term Trend: Bullish

On the 1-hour chart, the price of IOTA is in a bullish trend zone. On June 21, the crypto’s price was making a series of higher highs and higher lows. However, IOTA market was resisted at the $0.4800 price level but the price fell and found support at the low of $0.4400.

The bulls made an upward move to retest the $0.4800 price level. Nevertheless, the IOTA price is in the oversold region of the daily stochastic but above the 40% range. This indicates that price is in a bullish momentum and a buy signal.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect that of BitcoinExchangeGuide.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

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Bitcoin on Track for Best Second Quarter Price Gain on Record

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  • Bitcoin’s 165 percent gain so far this quarter is the best second quarter performance on record and the highest quarterly percentage gain since the end of 2017. The stellar gains have bolstered the long-term bullish technical setup.
  • While the relative strength index is reporting overbought conditions, there are no signs of bullish exhaustion on the daily, 3-day or weekly charts. As a result, the outlook remains bullish with resistances lined up at $11,247 and $11,394, according to Bitstamp data.
  • A minor pullback to $10,000 could be seen if the price again fails to hold onto gains above $11,000, validating a more bearish setup on the 4-hour chart.
  • The bullish outlook would be invalidated if the price finds acceptance below $9,097 (May 30 high).

Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be powering to the best second quarter price gain on record and the best quarterly performance overall since late 2017.

At press time, the 165 percent gain on the April 1 opening price of $4,092 is the biggest percentage rise observed in May to June to date, going by Bitstamp data.

Further, bitcoin’s triple-digit gain so far for Q2 is the best quarterly rise overall since the fourth quarter of 2017. Over that period, the cryptocurrency rose 230 percent, propelling prices to a lifetime high of $20,000 in December.

Monthly chart

  • Bitcoin has rallied 165 percent so far this quarter, surpassing the previous second quarter record gain of 130 percent seen in 2017.
  • Prices jumped a meager 10.9 percent in the first quarter this year.
  • The 626 percent rise seen in the first three months of 2013 is bitcoin’s biggest quarterly gain to date.

With the 165 percent price rise, BTC seems to have left the bear market far behind. In fact, the bearish-to-bullish trend change was confirmed on April 2, when prices rallied $1,000 to levels above $5,000.

The cryptocurrency then rose above $8,000 in the run-up to New York Blockchain Week held from May 10 to May 18 and remained bid after the event to hit highs near $9,100 on May 30.

The two-month double-digit winning streak has now extended into June, with prices briefly hitting 15-month highs above $11,000 over the weekend. The recent leg higher from $7,500 to $10,000 could be associated with Facebook’s foray into cryptocurrencies.

Observers believe that Facebook’s Libra project will not only boost the adoption of cryptocurrencies, but will also strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as an anti-establishment asset.

Further, the leading cryptocurrency by market value is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May next year. Therefore, the long-term price prospects look bright.

In the short run, however, a repeated failure to hold onto gains above $11,000 could yield a correction. As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $10,880, representing 2.4 percent gains on the day.

Weekly, 3-day and daily charts

The RSIs on the weekly, 3-day and daily charts are reporting overbought conditions with above-70 readings.

So far, however, prices aren’t showing any signs of bullish exhaustion. The bullish structure of higher lows and higher highs is intact and the 5-and 10-candle moving averages (MA) on all three charts continue to trend north.

The overbought readings on the RSIs would gain credence only if signs of bull exhaustion emerge in the form of candlestick patterns such as doji, bearish engulfing, hanging man, etc.

The bullish outlook would be invalidated only if and when prices drop below $9,097 (May 30 high), invalidating the bullish higher lows and higher highs pattern.

On the higher side, resistance is seen at $11,247 (Sunday’s high) and $11,394 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the bear market drop).

4-hour chart

BTC has failed twice over the weekend to hold onto gains above $10,000 with the RSI charting lower highs (bearish divergence).

That RSI pattern would gain credence if the cryptocurrency again fades a break above $10,000, leading to a drop toward $10,000 – the support of the ascending trendline.

BTC was expected to put on a good show in the three months to June 30 this year, as a number of technical indicators had turned bullish in February and March.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by TradingView

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