You may have already heard about Augur, the blockchain-based prediction market. The people at the market predicted that the Democrats would win in 2018, that Brett Kavanaugh would go to the Supreme Court and now they are betting on whether Trump will be impeached or not.
Curiously, the network is split down the middle at the moment. While some people believe that Trump will be impeached, others don’t think that is likely to happen.
Augur is a free network in which people can bet on anything they want. As the platform is decentralized, governments have a hard time stopping the users (and most likely are not very concerned).
Because of this, someone created a bet asking “Will Donald Trump be impeached by the end of 2019?” At the moment, each side has about 50% of the votes, something that does not happen too often.
There are several other similar questions, too, which have a lower stake. In some, Trump is impeached, in others, he stays. In the centralized prediction platform PredictIt, however, most people believe that Trump will be impeached.
The only major concern which has already raised by some in Augur, is that it isn’t really clear what this means for Trump to be impeached in some cases. If the Congress votes for it, does it count if the Senate disagrees?
If this happens, the network will have to decide how to move forward. If no consensus is reached, both sides will get their money back, as there will be no way to determine the winners.
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