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Flipping Mobius

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The power of any network is the people who support it and believe in it. Crypto is no different. Of course, many of those who are heavily entrenched in the old financial system are unsurprisingly unswayed by the benefits of crypto, but that’s changing rapidly.

We previously reported that Niall Ferguson, the man who literally wrote the book on the evolution of money, had changed his mind from being a bitcoin skeptic to a fan.

Yesterday, I was on the radio with Bloomberg and the host said to me, “you know it’s interesting that your comments are so in line with our previous guest Mark Mobius.”

Seriously?!

For those of you who don’t know, Mark Mobius is a legendary investor who is used to managing billions of Dollars, mostly in emerging markets. He’s on record as being adamantly opposed to Bitcoin and saying that it has no value proposition.

However in this interview yesterday (timestamp 6:30), he expressed the “desire from people around the world to transfer money easily and confidentially” and said that he believes bitcoin will survive.

Still, being a pragmatic investor, Mobius has not yet himself invested in bitcoin due to the extreme volatility.

Mark!!… The volatility is one of the most attractive qualities of crypto from an asset managers perspective. The idea of asymmetric risk allows us to use this unique and uncorrelated asset class to greatly increase our return on risk in any otherwise well-diversified portfolio.

Just as I, in my portfolio, am holding about 3.5% in emerging markets, I believe that one day soon asset managers around the world will diversify with crypto.

While we wait, let’s play a game called “who is gonna flip next?”

@MatiGreenspan

eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Hit em in the Bonds
  • Bitcoin Cycle Visualized
  • Alts Catching Up

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of May 16th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

Stocks continue to defy the politicians and are continuing to recover from the recent trade-war-driven dip. The feeling from many analysts seems to be that the new tariffs and counter-tariffs are already priced in and unless we see a serious deterioration from here, there’s only upside potential.

Such deterioration, of course, does remain a distinct possibility. Even today we saw headlines like.

China isn’t taking this lying down either. We can see that over the last quarter China has offloaded US debt at its fastest pace in more than two years.

As China is the largest holder of US debt, this is a bit concerning and represents a notable escalation in the trade war. The fear and we haven’t seen it yet, is if China decides to devalue to the Yuan. Such a scenario doesn’t seem likely, as it would bring the currency’s stability into question and could cause Chinese citizens to try getting their money out of the country. However, if backed into a corner, they may have no other option but to take the hit in order to offset the tariffs.

Here we can see that the USD has been gaining against the CNH lately. The number to watch is the great wall of psychological resistance at seven Yuan to the Dollar.

Bitcoin’s Market Cycles

Those of you who’ve been reading for a while know that we’ve been talking about bitcoin’s bull and bear cycles a lot, in anticipation of history repeating itself. Of course, past performance is not an indication of future results but I thought that this graph showing bitcoin’s previous bull runs and massive pullbacks was worth sharing.

Notice that it is on a logarithmic scale, which is very popular among cryptoanalysts. It shows the highs and lows of each cycle and the percentage gains and losses on each one. Chart credit goes to @rallyqt.

How about a pullback?

Crypto markets are struggling to hold on to some of the lofty levels seen this week. Bitcoin itself just doesn’t seem to be able to keep above $8,000 and as I write it seems like a pullback is finally coming in.

Even John McAfee, the man whose ‘reputation’ is on the line for a massive moon, has recently stated that we could see a swift pullback.

In all fairness, we can’t really judge the strength of the bull run or even know if we’re in a bull market until we see a few pullbacks and continuations. Until then, all we’re seeing are temporary movements and not an overall trend.

Still, if it is the case that we’re going to the moon from a here a pullback has the potential to act as the slingshot that will take us there. Nobody wants to FOMO in at the top, so a nicely sized pullback could provide people who missed the last swing to join in at a better price.

The size of the pullback will also be significant. For example, if the worst is over right now, then that is an incredibly bullish sign. If it takes us back to test $6,000 and then continues to break above the recent highs, I would say that would be the start of a healthy bull market. If, on the other hand, a large pullback comes and takes us back below $5,000 then this entire party may have been for naught.

We’ll see how it goes.

Let’s have a flipping amazing day.

Best regards,

Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/matigreenspan

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matisyahu/

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This is a marketing communication and should not be taken as investment advice, personal recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation to buy or sell, any financial instruments. This material has been prepared without having regard to any particular investment objectives or financial situation, and has not been prepared in accordance with the legal and regulatory requirements to promote independent research. Any references to past performance of a financial instrument, index or a packaged investment product are not, and should not be taken as, a reliable indicator of future results. eToro makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the content of this publication, which has been prepared utilizing publicly-available information.

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Dow Gloom Darkens after ‘Very Happy’ Trump Brags China Tariffs in Billions

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By CCN: U.S. President Donald Trump firmly stated his administration will not allow China to emerge as the global superpower and overtake the U.S., indicating that his administration will not compromise to reach a partial trade deal which may have an adverse effect on the Dow and the equities market.

[embedded content] [embedded content]

Speaking to Steve Hilton on The Next Revolution hosted by Fox News, President Trump said:

Yes, I do. I think that is their intention [to overtake the U.S.], why wouldn’t it be; they’re very ambitious people, they’re very smart, they’re great people, it’s a great culture, an amazing culture. You know when I had President Xi, I was showing him the Lincon bedroom, the White House, and I said this was built in 1799, you know I think of that as being really old. But, to him, that’s like a modern house.

President emphasized that China was catching the U.S. and was en route to becoming a much bigger economy. As such, the President said he is happy with the tariffs and is willing to remain patient for the right deal.

Is the dow set for gloom after trump’s interview?

Some strategists have suggested that Chinese negotiators may be planning to wait until the end of the presidency of President Trump in 2020 to secure a trade deal with the U.S.

But, President Trump said during the interview that he is satisfied with the tariffs in place, which have allowed the U.S. to take billions of dollars from $325 billion worth of Chinese goods.

He said:

A lot of people won’t be happy with this answer but I’m very happy now. We’re taking in billions of dollars, China is obviously not doing well like us. Since I’ve been President, we’ve made almost $10 trillion in wealth and China has lost $10 trillion in wealth. They’ve lost a tremendous amount. You know, you see what’s happening, their economy is not great, our economy has been fantastic.

In the past month, while the SSE Composite, which includes all stocks traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, fell by more than 10 percent, the Dow Jones declined by a mere 2.8 percent.

Still, with President Trump unwilling to compromise and President Xi reportedly preparing for a long trade war, the dispute that may intensify geopolitical risks is likely to have a negative effect on both the Dow and the Chinese equities market.

The Dow Jones has recovered in the past five days

The Dow Jones has recovered in the past five days by 500 points (source: Yahoo Finance)

One source briefed on trade discussions in Beijing told FT:

If the bulk of this agreement is about China doing this and China doing that, that’s totally unpalatable to a domestic audience.

Although the Dow Jones has demonstrated a stunning recovery year-to-date, a part of the optimism towards a full-blown bull market was the anticipation of the establishment of a full trade accord.

With the prospect of a full deal in the near-term largely dismissed and both governments preparing for a long-term dispute, the momentum of the Dow Jones could weaken in the short-term.

Trump won’t let china catch the united states

President Trump noted that China was getting close to beating the U.S. and becoming the largest economy in the world.

“They were catching us. They were going to be bigger than us if Hilary Clinton became President, China would have been a much bigger economy than us by the end of her term. And now, it’s not even going to be close,” President Trump said.

The unwillingness of the Trump administration to back down from its requests for key changes in industrial policies demonstrates the intent of the U.S. to maintain its dominance in the global economy.

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Dutch Bank ABN AMRO Abandons Wallie Custodial Bitcoin Wallet Citing Risk Concerns

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Dutch bank ABN AMRO abandoned its plans to launch a custodial bitcoin (BTC) wallet dubbed “Wallie” because of risk concerns, according to a report published on May 20 by tech news outlet The Next Web.

Per the report, the bank’s senior press officer, Jarco de Swart, said in an email to the outlet that the bank decided not to continue its plans after it “concluded that cryptocurrencies because of their unregulated nature are at the moment too risky assets for our clients to invest in.”

The rumors concerning alleged tests of the wallet first started spreading in January. Still, according to The Next Web, the bank had actually just asked 500 of its customers if it should develop the wallet and if so, how. Owler estimates the bank’s annual revenue to be $10.3 billion, and reports that the firm has 18,720 employees.

As Cointelegraph reported in November last year, major oil companies BP, Shell and Equinor have united with large banks — including ABN AMRO — and trading houses to launch a blockchain-driven platform, Vakt, for energy commodity trading.

Last week, Alexandre Kech, CEO of Onchain Custodian, predicted that collaboration between crypto and traditional custodians will grow.

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First Since 2017: Bitcoin Price Logs Double-Digit Gains for Third Week

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  • Bitcoin has recorded double-digit gains for three consecutive weeks, a feat last seen during the height of the bull market in 2017.
  • BTC’s quick recovery from Friday’s low of $6,178 indicates “buy the dip” mentality is quite strong. Further, the daily and weekly charts are biased bullish. Prices, therefore, could rise to $8,500 (July 2018) this week.
  • Before such a rise, however, we may see a correction to $7,500–$7,200, according to the hourly chart.
  • The short-term outlook would turn bearish only if prices find acceptance below the 30-day moving average, currently at $6,239.

Bitcoin (BTC) is looking strong, having registered double digit gains for three consecutive weeks.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value closed last week with 17.5 percent gains, having rallied 22.16 percent and 10.62 percent in the preceding two weeks, respectively, according to Bitstamp data.

The last time BTC witnessed a similar bullish run was in the final quarter of 2017, when the cryptocurrency had logged in double digit gains for five weeks straight to hit an all-time high of around $20,000 on Dec. 17.

The latest weekly winning streak could be extended further, as BTC’s quick recovery from Friday’s lows below $6,100 to a high of $8,299 on Sunday indicates a strong “buy the dip” mentality.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $7,903, representing a 1.36 percent drop on the day.

Other top cryptocurrencies like ether (ETH), litecoin (LTC), binance coin (BNB) and XRP are also reporting moderate losses, according to CoinMarketCap.

Weekly Chart

As can be seen, BTC has logged its first three week run of double digit gains since December 2017.

Notably, prices bounced up sharply from the 5-week moving average (MA) last week and closed on a positive note, reinforcing the bullish view put forward by that ascending average.

There have also been two bullish crossovers in the last week: one of the 5- and 100-week MAs, and another of the 10- and 50-week MAs, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the higher side.

What’s more, BTC closed well above September 2018 high of $7,411 last week. The cryptocurrency, therefore, appears on track to test the next resistance at $8,500 (July 2018 high).

Daily chart

Bitcoin closed with nearly 13 percent gains on Sunday, marking a strong follow-through to the dip demand highlighted by Friday’s long-tailed daily candle.

The short-term outlook, therefore, remains bullish with scope for a rally to $8,500, as suggested by the weekly chart.

Confirming the bullish case is the positive reading on the Chaikin money flow (CMF) index, indicating increasing buying pressure. Further, the 10-day moving average (MA) is also trending north in favor of the bulls.

The outlook as per the daily chart would turn bearish only if and when the price finds acceptance below the 30-day MA, currently at $6,239. That average resistance was breached with a high-volume rally upside move on Feb. 8 and has reversed pullbacks ever since.

While the weekly and daily charts are biased bullish, the short duration view below indicates a pullback to $7,500 may be in order before a rally to $8,500.

Hourly chart

On the hourly chart, BTC is currently trading above the head-and-shoulders neckline of $7,848, having dived out of a rising wedge – a bearish reversal pattern – in the Asian trading hours.

A head-and-shoulders breakdown would be confirmed if prices drop below $7,848, opening doors for a deeper correction to the $7,500–$7,200 support zone.

That said, with the longer duration charts biased bullish, any dips to $7,500 or below will likely be short-lived.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; technical charts by Trading View

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TRON Price Prediction Today: Daily (TRX) Value Forecast – May 20

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Tron-Surpasses-1-Billion-In-Trading-Volume-Reaching-New-Highs-In-Over-12-Months

Tron-Surpasses-1-Billion-In-Trading-Volume-Reaching-New-Highs-In-Over-12-Months

  • The short and medium-term outlook is in a bearish trend.
  • Traders may consider selling at key areas.

TRX/USD Medium-term Trend: Bearish

• Supply zones: $0.04000, $0.05000, $0.06000
• Demand zones: $0.01000, $0.00900, $0.00800

TRON is in a bearish trend in its medium-term outlook. After bullish exhaustion at $0.03319 in the supply area, the bears took control of the market. The cryptocurrency is in an ascending channel a correction pattern for downward price continuation.

The bulls manage a push to $0.02880 as the high of yesterday market before exhaustion and the bears stage a return.

The bearish 4-hour opening candle at $0.02830 sustained the bearish momentum with the cryptocurrency down at $0.02703 in the demand area.

The stochastic oscillator signal points down at 47% while price is between the two EMAs. These suggest downward momentum with more candle opened and closed below the two EMAs due to increased pressure by the bears.

$0.02655 in the lower line of the channel and a subsequent break may occur in the medium-term.

TRX/USD Short-term Trend: Bearish

The cryptocurrency is in a bearish trend in its short-term outlook. The double-top10 formation at $0.02870 in the supply area favour the bears in the short-term. Confirmation to the downward movement occurred at the bread of the two EMAs by the large bearish candle at$0.02830.

TRXUSD is currently down at $0.02697 in the demand area with $0.02550 in the demand area is the initial bears’ target. This was confirmed by the signal of the stochastic pointing down at % in the oversold region coupled with price below the two EMAs.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect that of BitcoinExchangeGuide.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

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Game Changer for Bitcoin? VanEck ETF Decision Tomorrow –  All You Need to Know

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One of the events the entire cryptocurrency community has its sights turned to is the VanEck/SolidX Bitcoin ETF proposal. It was published in the Federal Register back on February 20th, giving the SEC a legal timeframe of 90 days to make a further decision. This means that the Commission must come up with a decision tomorrow, May 21st.

May 21st – An Important Date for Bitcoin

The saga around VanEck/SolidX Bitcoin ETF proposal has been going on for quite a while now. Last year, their application was withdrawn after being delayed on multiple occasions by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, shortly after that, the application was submitted again, reigniting hope among those who believe that a Bitcoin ETF would catalyze a further increase in the price of the cryptocurrency, as well as further adoption.

The new application was filed with the Federal Register on February 20th, giving the SEC a binding term of 90 days to come up with a decision to approve, deny, or delay it. Interestingly enough, another Bitcoin ETF application was also filed with the Register on February 15th – that of Bitwise. The SEC delayed its decision on the latter, while even deciding to use the full 90 days term to make up its mind on the application of VanEck and SolidX. This is why May 21st is an important date to expect.

According to famous legal expert among the cryptocurrency community, Jake Chervinsky, however, the chances of a delay or denial are much higher than the chances of approval.

He bases his merit on the fact that the SEC is unlikely to approve the first-ever Bitcoin ETF without taking the full 240 days period that it legally can. Moreover, he also finds it rather unusual that the Commission didn’t delay the VanEck Bitcoin ETF together with that of Bitwise.

The lawyer also cited some of the reasons for the delay of the application of Bitwise, which include:

  • The nature of the market for Bitcoin
  • The efficiency of that market
  • The susceptibility of that market to manipulation
  • How the market is similar to markets for other commodities
  • Reports that a large percentage of reported volume is fake

Chervinsky pointed out that if VanEck has any chance of approval, then the SEC “would need to delay & aks all these same questions to them as well.”

What Does This Mean For Bitcoin?

While it’s anyone’s guess how a potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF would impact Bitcoin’s price and whether it would surge, the majority of the cryptocurrency community is undoubtedly sure of it.

According to Josh Roger, a well-known cryptocurrency trader and investor, the different scenarios will have different impacts on the price.

The upcoming VanEck ETF decision could certainly have a serious impact on BTC price.

Denial = Pull back the current price regardless of how good it looked this weekend.

Approval = push the price to new yearly high and create mass FOMO buying.

Delay = Expected & likely little change.

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