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Ethereum (ETH) May Pull Back Over Next Two Weeks, BitMEX Data Hints

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Ethereum May Soon Consolidate


It isn’t a secret that the cryptocurrency market has been on a tear. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and many other crypto assets are right under their year-to-date highs, and look poised to break into a decidedly bullish cycle.

However, an astute observer, who goes by “Rptr45” on Twitter, suggests that the market may consolidate. The statistician looks to the fact that the daily funding rate on BitMEX, which is the percentage that investors pay on certain trades, has reached 0.34% for Ethereum traders. This is reportedly in the 93rd percentile of all Ethereum funding rates ever.

While this sounds negligible, Rptr notes that such high funding rates have led to periods where the value of ETH goes “decidedly negative” in the following ten to 20 days. According to data he compiled, Ethereum fell by -8.2% on average in the 20 days that followed a BitMEX funding rate of more than 0.336%. Thus, if history is of any indication, ETH could fall by 10% (or even more) from here, ending the jaw-dropping rallying it has been on over the past week or so. Or at Rptr writes, “leverage has gotten to the point where it looks like the market needs to consolidate.”

As of the time of writing, each Ethereum is valued at $250.93, and is down 3.5% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin is at $8,100, even after the flash crash seen last week.

What’s After Consolidation?

So what comes after a brief consolidation period for the cryptocurrency market? According to an array of analysts, Bitcoin and its ilk may just see higher highs. As reported by Ethereum World News, prolific analyst Crypto Rand remarked that he sees a clear pattern playing out for Bitcoin. The pattern is for BTC to trade within a triangle, then break to the upside to potential touch the $10,000 price level. This would also lead to a similar rally in altcoins, like ETH and XRP.

The fact that Bitcoin just closed strong on its weekly chart corroborates this optimism. Popular analyst The Crypto Dog notes that BTC closing at $8,100 is a “hell of a bullish” sign, looking to the fact that the volumes, which he calls “near record-breaking”, confirm that the ongoing foray higher is strong and valid. The recent close marks the 16th or 17th week in a row that cryptocurrencies weren’t subject to a massive sell-off, which were a rather common sight in the latter half of 2018.

Some, however, have been a bit more cynical. Magic Poop Cannon, an ill-titled technical analyst that called last year’s BTC decline from $6,000 to $3,000, recently remarked that there’s a likelihood that the bull market isn’t on yet. Per previous reports, the trader explained that there are clear signs that Bitcoin is overextended: the Money Flow Index and Network Value to Transactions ratio have both neared the top of their oscillators, which is a pattern that has historically preceded drops of over 80%. He adds that
Bitcoin’s current rally makes no logical sense, pinning the irrationality of this market to institutional investors, futures, trading desks, high-frequency trading, and other factors that have been known to manipulate the underlying nature of markets. 

But who will be right? The bulls or the bears?

Title Image Courtesy of Ethan Hoover on Unsplash

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Blockchain

Crypto’s 69 most interesting charts from 2021

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As most of us were enjoying some R&R over Christmas break, Coinbase Cloud protocol specialist Elias Simos was scouring the web for the most interesting crypto charts of 2021: 69 of them to be exact.

In the latest Around The Block podcast, we sit down with Elias and discuss some of the most interesting data points from the year, and what it all means for the future. (High level takeaways below)

Metaverse and smart contract assets outperform

Price isn’t everything, but the two top performing assets in 2021 are indicative of broader trends throughout the year. 2021’s best performing assets were:

  • Metaverse gaming tokens
  • Smart contract platform tokens

The governance tokens of gaming worlds Axie Infinity (AXS) and The Sandbox (SAND) each posted 16,000 and 13,000 percent gains respectively. Meanwhile, platform tokens from Polygon, Terra, Solana, and Fantom, all posted 8,000% gains or more.

Given that play-to-earn gaming had a breakout year, and layer 1s not named Ethereum saw strong adoption, these trends should be of no surprise. Now let’s dig a bit deeper.

The state of Layer 1s

Ethereum’s native token (ETH) did a modest 2X over the year, while it was somewhat of a rough year for Ethereum DeFi blue chips, with the DeFiPulse index down 80% over the year vs ETH.

The price of DeFi assets doesn’t tell the entire story, however. TVL of Ethereum DeFi applications showed tremendous growth over the year, and the number of unique Ethereum addresses interacting with DeFi protocols 4x’ed.

DefiLlama and Decentral Park Capital

Regardless, ETH killers and sidechains won the year when measured by growth of overall market share.

DefiLlama and Decentral Park Capital

The great migration & the EVM standard

In May, there was $200M sitting in Ethereum bridges. That number climbed to $20B by the end of the year, underscoring the great migration of value from Ethereum to other ecosystems.

The flipside, however, is that despite this migration away from Ethereum, most value still sits in EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) compatible environments.

Remember that the EVM is essentially the brain of Ethereum that performs computations for the network. When other Layer 1s adopt the EVM, it makes deploying existing applications on new networks easier for developers, in addition to making it easier for users to migrate to these new chains.

The dominance of value on EVM compatible chains (Avalanche, Polygon, etc) suggest that a standard is forming around the EVM. This should ultimately keep Ethereum as the gravitational center of the smart contracting world, as ETH applications and assets will be natively interoperable with most other chains.

Rise of the app chains

While EVM chains still dominate the landscape, the end of 2021 saw a rise in value on Tendermint chains. Recall that Tendermint is a standard popularized by Cosmos, that lets developers build application specific blockchains that are capable of interoperating with one another.

Building app-specific chains in the past came with significant opportunity cost, because they were cut off from most liquidity and users. With the growth of Tendermint chains like Osmosis (AMM), Umee (lending), and Stargaze (NFTs), that’s becoming less of an issue.

Now that these app specific chains have a widening array of use cases and liquidity that they can interoperate with, look for more builders to take advantage of customizability that these chains offer in 2022.

The ENS airdrop + DAOs

In 2021, ENS reminded everyone of Web3’s native user acquisition strategy: the airdrop.

ENS (Ethereum Name Service) addresses are best thought of as email addresses that you can send money to (e.g. Jimbo.eth). After 5 years in development, the project shifted to a DAO model, and airdropped ENS governance tokens to every user with an ENS address.

After the drop in November, awareness of ENS and registration of .eth addresses skyrocketed.

Dune Analytics, matoken.eth

Since the ENS DAO treasury collects revenue from new .eth registrations, revenue for the newly minted ENS DAO treasury ramped up significantly: another testament to how much a well orchestrated airdrop can move the needle.

Dune Analytics, matoken.eth

Beyond ENS, DAOs had a strong year, evident by the growing usage in key pieces of DAO infrastructure. Gnosis Safe, which is the most popular multisig wallet DAOs use to manage their treasuries, saw 3x growth in both the number of Safes and transactions executed in 2021. Snapshot, a tool that helps DAOs execute off-chain votes with on-chain verification, exhibited strong growth as well.

EN-EFF-TEES

Activity on the dominant platform for NFTs tells you all you need to know about the breakout year NFTs enjoyed.

Dune Analytics, Richard Chen

OG NFT CryptoPunks saw 60x YoY growth, reaching a total volume of 650K ETH, or $1.7B at current prices. This figure however, includes a flashloan powered $500M wash sale — a powerful reminder of how much subjectivity there is in on-chain data.

The second most notable NFT project of the year was Bored Ape Yacht Club, which went from a niche community to the celebrity NFT of choice, including the likes of Steph Curry, Shaq, Justin Bieber, Jimmy Fallon, Paris Hilton, among others. At one point the BAYC floor (price of the cheapest NFT in the collection) momentarily flipped the CryptoPunks floor.

In the heat of new issuances flooding the market, and older NFT collections achieving billion dollar market caps, the average price of NFTs changing hands did a 150x from 0.1 ETH to roughly 15 ETH by year end.

Dune Analytics, Richard Chen

One of the most interesting NFT launches of the year was Loot (covered here), which let anyone mint 1 of 8,000 NFTs that could form the basis of a Dungeons and Dragon style RPG game. Initial excitement was skyhigh, before fizzling out as time went on.

Dune Analytics

While Loot’s flame may have dimmed, it was still a landmark year for NFT based gaming, with the breakaway success of Axie Infinity bringing play-to-earn and GameFi narratives to the forefront. As the data shows, Axie Infinity NFT volume dwarfs that of any prior NFT based game.

CryptoSlam and The Block

Lastly, while Ethereum was the center of the NFT show, marketplaces appear to be springing up across multiple chains. The data shows that lower fee environments are enabling different types of user activity. Solana’s Magic Eden, for example, has more transactions than OpenSea since users are unencumbered by exorbitant gas fees.

More in Elias’s epic thread

Beyond being chock-full of illuminating data points on the year in crypto and Web3, the full thread underscores the beauty of on-chain data and the increased maturity of the industry. The ability for one person to put together a dataset this rich is a testament to all of the great data providers the industry now has at our disposal.

If you haven’t already, check out the full thread which covers Bitcoin, Ethereum, MEV, L2 adoption, ETH2, staking, Web3, memecoins, DEXes, stablecoins, and a whole lot more.

~Written by Connor Dempsey & Justin Mart.

This website does not disclose material nonpublic information pertaining to Coinbase or Coinbase Venture’s portfolio companies.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed on this website are those of the authors who may be associated persons of Coinbase, Inc., or its affiliates (“Coinbase”) and who do not represent the views, opinions and positions of Coinbase. Information is provided for general educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment or other advice on financial products. Coinbase makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, suitability, or validity of any information on this website and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. Unless otherwise noted, all images provided herein are the property of Coinbase. This website contains links to third-party websites or other content for information purposes only. Third-party websites are not under the control of Coinbase, and Coinbase is not responsible for their contents. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, approval or recommendation by Coinbase of the site or any association with its operators.


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A simple guide to the Web3 stack

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Web3 is the latest buzzword to see an uptick in interest in recent months — What does it actually mean?

Around the Block from Coinbase Ventures sheds light on key trends in crypto. Written by Connor Dempsey, Angie Wang & Justin Mart.

A lot of definitions have been thrown around, but at Coinbase, we generally think of Web3 as a trustless, permissionless, and decentralized internet that leverages blockchain technology.

Web3’s defining feature is ownership. Whereas the first iteration of the commercial internet (Web1) was read-only for most users, and Web2 allowed users to both read & write on centralized platforms (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, etc), Web3 gives users full ownership over their content, data, and assets via blockchains. It empowers users to read-write-own.

Where a third party like Facebook owns your identity and data in Web2, your identity in Web3 can move fluidly between platforms without your data being captured and monetized by service providers. While Web2 apps are centrally controlled, tokens in Web3 grant users the right to help govern the services they use, representing a form of ownership in the platforms themselves.

With that framing in mind, what does the Web3 stack look like?

The Web 3 stack

The Web3 stack is still nascent and fragmented, but with much innovation over the years, it’s beginning to come into focus. What follows is not a mutually exclusive nor completely exhaustive lay of the land. Rather, it’s a framework for thinking about this landscape as it continues to evolve.

Let’s start from the bottom up.

Protocol Layer

At the bottom of the stack, we have the protocol layer. This is made up of the underlying blockchain architecture on top of which everything else gets built.

Bitcoin is the granddaddy of them all, and while it doesn’t play a major role in Web3 today, it pioneered the ability for someone to own a scarce digital asset through the use of public-private key cryptography. Following Bitcoin, came a range of layer 1 smart contract platforms like Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, Cosmos, etc, that serve as the foundation for many of the Web3 applications currently in production.

Bitcoin and Ethereum each have additional protocols built on top of them. Bitcoin has networks like the Lightning Network (for fast and cheap payments) and Stacks (for smart contracts), among others. To alleviate its capacity limitations, multiple layer 2 scaling protocols have been built on top of Ethereum.

With the rise of many layer 1 and layer 2 networks came the need to bridge value between them. Enter cross-chain bridges that serve as highways that let users move value from one chain to another (useful cross-chain dashboards can be found here and here).

Infrastructure / Category Primitives

The infrastructure layer sits on top of the protocol layer and is composed of interoperable building blocks (what we’re calling “category primitives”) that are highly reliable at doing a specific task.

This is a dense and diverse layer, with projects building everything from smart contract auditing software, data storage, communication protocols, data analytics platforms, DAO governance tooling, identity solutions, financial primitives, and more.

For example, Uniswap enables the swapping of one asset for another. Arweave enables data to be stored in a decentralized manner. ENS domain names can serve as a user’s identity in the world of Web3. A user can’t do much with each standalone application. However, when combined, these category primitives act like lego bricks that a Web3 developer can use to construct an app.

Use Case Layer

Atop the protocol and infrastructure layers sit the use case layer, where it all comes together.

Take a blockchain based game like Axie Infinity, which uses Ethereum tokens and NFTs that can be bridged to a low-cost/high throughput sidechain called Ronin. Players often use Uniswap to swap ETH for the tokens needed to play the game. Similarly, decentralized blogging platform Mirror uses the storage protocol Arweave to store data. Meanwhile, it leverages Ethereum to let publishers get paid in crypto, often by directing tokens to their ENS address.

You’ll notice that Uniswap appears both in our infrastructure and use case sections. This is because, while at its core Uniswap is simply a series of smart contracts, it also provides a frontend that users can interact with directly. Put differently, it simultaneously serves as a standalone user-facing app as well as infrastructure for other Web3 apps like Axie Infinity.

Access Layer

At the tippy top of the stack sits the access layer — applications that serve as the entry point for all manner of Web3 activities.

Want to play Axie Infinity or get paid for your content on Mirror? First thing you’ll need is a wallet, which serves as the main point of entry for most Web3 applications. Fiat onramps like Moonpay, Wyre, or exchanges like Coinbase help users trade their fiat money for crypto in order to get started.

With some crypto in a wallet, users can head to an aggregator like DappRadar to browse through and connect to all kinds of Web3 applications in one place. Other projects like Rabbithole help users discover and learn how to use various Web3 applications. There are also aggregators like Zapper, Zerion, and Debank that help users track all of their activities and assets across various apps.

Lastly, we’re close to a future in which Web2 platforms where cryptonative communities already gather, like Reddit and Twitter, serve as an entry point for Web3. Reddit’s long-awaited crypto initiative will let certain communities tokenize, rewarding users with tokens and likely NFTs for active participation. Twitter already boasts an integration with Bitcoin’s Lightning Network to let users tip others in BTC.

The ever-evolving stack

The protocols, infrastructure, user applications, and access points named above make up the nascent, yet evolving world of Web3: an internet owned by its users. Beyond ownership, the power of Web3 lies in its modularity and interoperability. Essentially, this means that there are endless ways that the above stack can be combined to create new and interesting use cases — a feature that we expect will lead to a Cambrian explosion of new, world-changing applications.

While the framework and layers we highlighted will likely stay unchanged, we expect the projects and opportunities within them to evolve dramatically in the coming years.

Web3 Reads

Web3 Tweets

Previous editions of Around The Block

This website does not disclose material nonpublic information pertaining to Coinbase or Coinbase Venture’s portfolio companies.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed on this website are those of the authors who may be associated persons of Coinbase, Inc., or its affiliates (“Coinbase”) and who do not represent the views, opinions and positions of Coinbase. Information is provided for general educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment or other advice on financial products. Coinbase makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, suitability, or validity of any information on this website and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. Unless otherwise noted, all images provided herein are the property of Coinbase. This website contains links to third-party websites or other content for information purposes only. Third-party websites are not under the control of Coinbase, and Coinbase is not responsible for their contents. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, approval or recommendation by Coinbase of the site or any association with its operators.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Could See Further Pullback This Week, Warn Analysts

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Analysts Bearish on Bitcoin


Bitcoin (BTC) hasn’t been doing all too hot as of late. After skyrocketing higher by over 100% from early-April to late-May, the cryptocurrency has begun to taper off, with bulls clearly losing momentum over the past week. In fact, BTC hit $7,450 last week just days after rubbing shoulders with $9,100. This represented an approximately 20% decline in a few days’ time.

While Bitcoin has since recovered slightly, with bulls wresting the asset to $7,900, some are fearful that a move lower may soon come to fruition. Analyst CryptoBirb remarked that BTC isn’t in a good place right now, having broken below a key medium-term parabolic trend (the one that supported the run from $5,000 to $9,000), a steep short-term uptrend, and the ever-important $8,000 level.

This isn’t the only harrowing sign. Analyst Teddy recently pointed out that the “daily [chart] is starting to look increasingly weaker” for the leading digital asset. More specifically, Bitcoin has been struggling to make a move on $8,000, let alone $8,200; and the asset has also struggled to close above the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key trend line.

You see a theme here? Well, if you haven’t, let me point it out. It’s $8,000. This level is what many believes is ‘make or break’ for bulls, especially on the short to the medium time span. In fact, analyst Josh Rager of Level recently tweeted that if Bitcoin closes the weekly candle (Sunday) under $8,000, a move to the downside would be most likely.

So where could Bitcoin head from here? According to Birb, as long as Bitcoin is under the $8,200 and $9,200 levels, he would inclined to be bearish, and would actually expect a medium time frame drawdown to the mid-$5,000 range. He isn’t the first to have looked to this region.

Trader Walter Wyckoff noted that if BTC is mirroring price action in 2015 — during which this market went parabolic, saw a brief retrace, and then continued higher — it could fall to the low-$6,000s, or even the high-$5,000s.

Tuur Deemester of Adamant Capital made a similar proposal. In a recent note, he explained that Bitcoin could see a larger retrace from here, which would bring BTC to $5,600. The reason why this could occur is that in 2015, there was a large “upward move” in the Relative Unrealized P&L indicator, which coincided with a peak in capital flight from China, then a 70% retrace of the rally. With the conditions seemingly being the same — it is believed the U.S.-China trade war has catalyzed Bitcoin’s strong price action — this sequence of events is surely on the table.

Title Image Courtesy of Andre Francois Mckenzie Via Unsplash 

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Ethereum News

‘Halvening’: Litecoin (LTC) Could Double Against Bitcoin in Coming Months

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Litecoin May Run Into Late-2020’s Halving


Just as Bitcoin (BTC) has so-called “halvenings”, Litecoin (LTC) does too. While the popular altcoin is different than its proverbial godfather, sporting a different block hashing algorithm, quicker block times, and a different focus, Litecoin has block reward reductions built in. Ever four years, the amount of LTC issued per block halves in an event known as a “halving”, “halvening”, or the more formal “reduction in supply issuance/inflation”.

Why Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, built this mechanism into his brainchild we do not know, but it likely has to do with the programmer’s supposed distaste towards centralized financial institutions, many of which have the ability to print money at will and without the public’s explicit knowledge.

Due to simple supply-demand economics, many are sure that as Litecoin’s halving nears for this August, LTC could surge. We’ve already received a taste of what the cryptocurrency market is feeling, as Litecoin has already rallied by 286% year-to-date (per Messari), ousting most altcoins and even the venerable Bitcoin.

According to a recent tweet from analyst Financial Survivalism, Litecoin still has a lot of room to run. He notes that prior to the cryptocurrency’s previous block reward reduction, which happened in mid-2015, LTC rallied strongly against Bitcoin, eventually finding a parabolic peak right after the auspicious event. Then, Litecoin sold off against Bitcoin, falling into the latter’s halving event.

If historical trends hold up this time around, LTC will continue to rally against BTC — potentially doubling from 0.0148 where it is now to around 0.0270 — in the coming three-odd months. If Bitcoin continues higher from here, this rally in the altcoin could translate into a $250+ Litecoin by the time of the halving.

Hype Growing For the Bitcoin Halving Too

Litecoin’s halving isn’t the only one being widely anticipated by the cryptocurrency industry. Just weeks ago, two actually, Bitcoin’s halving countdown fell to just one year.

The inflation of most assets can be hard to predict. Just look at the Venezuelan Bolivar as a perfect case in point. But with Bitcoin, we can determine what its inflation will be in ten years, but not the U.S. dollar. For all we know — and as some cynics speculate — something like the U.S. Dollar may be subject to hyperinflation by the next decade, as a result of fiscal irresponsibility and mismanagement.

This, coupled with the simple laws of supply and demand, have led many in the industry to suggest that the next halving will be entirely bullish for the Bitcoin price. In fact, Bloomberg reports that in a recent Twitter poll, 61% of some 2,500 users believed that BTC will rally into May 2020 and afterward, citing supply and demand economics to back their cheery expectations. But will this really happen?

We’ll have to wait and see.

Title Image Courtesy of Marco Verch Via Flickr

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Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) Likely Overextended, Could Fall to Low-$7,000s

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Bitcoin Yet To Fulfill Bull Market ‘Requirement’


Despite what some think, the Bitcoin (BTC) rally of 2017 wasn’t without its hitches. Over the course of the monumental year, during which BTC rose from irrelevance at $1,000 to the world’s hottest asset at $20,000, the cryptocurrency market was struck with crazy bouts of volatility. On some days, Bitcoin gained dozens of percent; on others, BTC stumbled, falling as a result of pure irrationality or bad news — namely China looking to ban cryptocurrency operations.

This, according to Twitter analyst TraderX0, resulted in BTC touching its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) seven times during the last bull run. This continual support along a single technical trend is what defined 2017’s trend. The thing is, this time around, Bitcoin has yet to even flirt with the 100-day exponential moving average.

In fact, as of the time of writing this, BTC has not crossed paths with the key level since late-March, prior to Bitcoin running past $5,000, $6,000, and $8,000 in rapid succession. This means that it has been almost two and a half months that Bitcoin hasn’t seen that level. If historical action is of any current relevance, the cryptocurrency could soon begin to fall further, specifically to test the EMA to confirm the ongoing bull run.

And interestingly, analysts expect a drawdown. On Twitter, legendary cryptocurrency investor Trace Mayer recently explained that he expects for Bitcoin to undergo a “gentle retreat” to anywhere from $6,500 to $7,500. His peer, Adamant Capital partner Tuur Demeester, echoed the analysis, writing in a note that his firm’s indicators now read “greed” after “capitulation”.

Using this information, Demeester remarked that a 2012-esque correction could be experienced, during which BTC may fall to the range of “between $6,800 and $7,680”, which is a 27% to 44% retrace of the upside rally.

Dips Gives Investors a Chance to Accumulate

While some are entirely fearful for a drawdown, especially considering that Bitcoin is emerging from a very vulnerable state, some have noted that pullbacks present a massive buying opportunity for long-term investors. Level’s Josh Rager reminded investors that every time Bitcoin saw a 30%+ pullback in the previous uptrend, the average gain was around 153% in the months that followed. So, if investors time the dip right, they may be able to make some hefty profits in the weeks and months to come.

Others have also said that a drawdown would be, oddly enough, healthy. In a recent tweet, popular commentator Moon Overlord recently hinted that a drawdown of around 30% to 40% would actually be sustainable, in that it would bring Bitcoin down to the high-$5,000s and low-$6,000s to set a strong base for the upcoming bull market.

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