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Bitcoin on the Defensive But May See Bounce at Key Price Support

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  • Bitcoin is looking south, as per the bearish divergence of the 14-day relative strength index and other short-term technical indicators.
  • A deeper pullback to levels below $5,000, however, would remain elusive if the 30-day moving average (MA), currently at $5,107 holds ground. That average repeatedly limited losses in March.
  • A rebound from the 30-day MA could be followed by re-test of recent highs above $5,600.
  • A UTC close below the 30-day MA would strengthen the short-term bearish case and expose the 50-day MA lined up at $4,649.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term prospects are looking bleak, but its close proximity to a historically strong price support level calls for caution on the part of the sellers.

The crypto market leader faced rejection at the bearish (descending) 50-week moving average (MA) last week and ended with a 2.5 percent drop, neutralizing the short-term bullish setup. A similar rejection at that average had ended up killing the nascent bull market four years ago, as discussed on Friday.

Further, with the pullback from five-month highs above $5,600 to $5,000 witnessed last week, the widely-followed 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is flashing bearish.

So, the path of least resistance appears to be on the downside in the short-term.

That said, investors looking to buy at lower levels may be left disappointed if the 30-day moving average (MA), which consistently applied brakes on price pullbacks in March, again fuels a strong bounce.

That possibility cannot be ruled out, as the longer duration charts are still looking bullish. For instance, BTC is currently sitting well above the widely tracked barometer of a long-term trend, the 200-day MA, currently at $4,438. Other long-term indicators like the 14-week RSI are also reporting bullish conditions.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $5,163 on Bitstamp, representing little change on a 24-hour basis, while the 30-day MA is located at $5,107.

Daily chart

While the 30-day MA had served as strong resistance in January, on Feb. 8, BTC confirmed seller exhaustion by establishing a bullish higher low and closing well above the 30-day MA after a 7.8 percent rise.

The newfound support has reversed price pullbacks ever since. The chart reveals BTC has established bullish higher lows along the 30-day MA throughout the recent rally, from lows near $3,300 to highs above $5,600.

Further, the long-term bullish breakout witnessed on April 2 was preceded by a higher low formation on the 30-day MA on March 26.

Hence, a bounce from that average would abort the short-term bearish view and could yield re-test of $5,627 (April 23 high).

A UTC close lower would imply an end of the rally from the Feb. 8 lows near $3,300 and allow for a deeper drop, possibly to the 50-day MA, currently at $4,649. That’s supported by the short-term bearish technical setup, as represented by the lower highs on the RSI, the bearish crossover of the 5- and 10-day MAs and the downside break of the channel.

Weekly chart

BTC has created a red candle with long wicks (the gap between weekly high and opening price and weekly low and closing price) and small body (spread between open and close) on the weekly chart. The candle is widely considered a sign of indecision in the market.

The candle, however, appeared following a rally from lows near $3,300 seen in February and at the crucial 50-week MA resistance. So, it could indicate, more specifically, indecision among the buyers.

Any break below the 30-day MA would validate the bullish exhaustion signaled by the weekly candle and open the doors to deeper price pullback.

The long-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the price is holding above the former resistance-turned-support of $4,236 (Dec. 24 high).

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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Binance Coin Price Prediction: Long-term (BNB) Value Forecast – May 19

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  • BNB/USD trade has been on a slow and steady upswing over time until now.
  • The BNB/USD market may experience a line of variant correction around $32 and $28 price points, and that could result in range market movements.

BNB/USD Long-term Trend – Bullish

  • Distribution territories: $40, $42, $46
  • Accumulation territories: $16, $12, $8

Binance Coin market has been on a slow and steady increase as paired with the US dollar price valuation. On May 9, the crypto-trade declined slightly past the trend-line of the 50-day SMA indicator to record a low point around $20 mark.

On the succeeding trading day, May 10, the crypto notably made a weak come-back, and that has now featured as its actual turning point for its current visible upswing in the market to touch a high mark at $32 over the 14-day SMA’s trend-line. The 50-day SMA is situated underneath the 14-day SMA with a small space between them. The Stochastic Oscillators are now seemingly attempting to close hairs around range 80.

Observantly, the BNB/USD trade has been swinging upward mostly at the touch of its 14-day SMA’s trend-line from the top. Equally, The BNB/USD market may experience a line of variant correction around $32 and $28 price points, and that could give in to seeing other range market movements around those trading zones.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect that of BitcoinExchangeGuide.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Surges $800 Back To $8K – A New 2019 High Soon?

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Corrections are part of the game. Two days ago, when publishing our recent analysis, we saw Bitcoin correcting violently down, even touching $6300 on some exchanges. This was anticipated following the surge from $5000 that went only in one direction.

If someone is looking for strength in the BTC market, he would definitely find it at recent hours’ Bitcoin behavior. The volatile coin had gone through a fabulous $800 bullish run, and now testing $8000 again.

Lastly, and not for the first time, this is for sure Bitcoin’s favorite TV show:

btc_bart_may19_v-min

Total Market Cap: $249 Billion

Bitcoin Market Cap: $140.9 Billion

BTC Dominance: 56.6%

Looking at the 1-day & 4-hour charts

– Support/Resistance:
From above, Bitcoin is now facing the $8000 resistance again. If Bitcoin succeeds in breaking, we would expect a retest of $8200 and 2019 high at $8400. Breaking up and $8500, $8800 and $9000 will become the next targets for the cryptocurrency.

From below, after the $7000 and $7250 – $7300 had proven to be strong support area, from below there is also the $7800 and $7600 support levels before reaching to the mentioned area.

– Trading Volume: The recent days had seen very high volume (and high volatility). The daily volume levels are starting to look like December 2018 numbers.

– Daily chart’s RSI: The RSI had also encountered a resistance zone of 70 – 73. However, a bullish sign might be coming from the Stochastic RSI oscillator. The last is moving toward a crossover in the oversold area; this can fuel up the market and assist in breaking up the $8000.

– BitFinex open short positions: Following the severe 40% drop of the short positions and the long squeeze, the shorts are slowly climbing and now stand on 17.6K BTC open short positions.

BTC/USD BitStamp 4-Hour Chart

btc_may19_4h-min

BTC/USD BitStamp 1-Day Chart

btc_may19_d-min

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Surges $800 Back To $8K – A New 2019 High Soon?

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Corrections are part of the game. Two days ago, when publishing our recent analysis, we saw Bitcoin correcting violently down, even touching $6300 on some exchanges. This was anticipated following the surge from $5000 that went only in one direction.

If someone is looking for strength in the BTC market, he would definitely find it at recent hours’ Bitcoin behavior. The volatile coin had gone through a fabulous $800 bullish run, and now testing $8000 again.

Lastly, and not for the first time, this is for sure Bitcoin’s favorite TV show:

btc_bart_may19_v-min

Total Market Cap: $249 Billion

Bitcoin Market Cap: $140.9 Billion

BTC Dominance: 56.6%

Looking at the 1-day & 4-hour charts

– Support/Resistance:
From above, Bitcoin is now facing the $8000 resistance again. If Bitcoin succeeds in breaking, we would expect a retest of $8200 and 2019 high at $8400. Breaking up and $8500, $8800 and $9000 will become the next targets for the cryptocurrency.

From below, after the $7000 and $7250 – $7300 had proven to be strong support area, from below there is also the $7800 and $7600 support levels before reaching to the mentioned area.

– Trading Volume: The recent days had seen very high volume (and high volatility). The daily volume levels are starting to look like December 2018 numbers.

– Daily chart’s RSI: The RSI had also encountered a resistance zone of 70 – 73. However, a bullish sign might be coming from the Stochastic RSI oscillator. The last is moving toward a crossover in the oversold area; this can fuel up the market and assist in breaking up the $8000.

– BitFinex open short positions: Following the severe 40% drop of the short positions and the long squeeze, the shorts are slowly climbing and now stand on 17.6K BTC open short positions.

BTC/USD BitStamp 4-Hour Chart

btc_may19_4h-min

BTC/USD BitStamp 1-Day Chart

btc_may19_d-min

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Meteoric Crypto Recovery: Here’s What Triggered Bitcoin Price Above $8,000

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By CCN: The bitcoin price has surged by seven percent in the past several hours from $7,300 to around $8,000 in major markets including the U.S., demonstrating a strong recovery from its abrupt drop to $6,400.

The bitcoin price surges seven percent

The bitcoin price surges seven percent in less than four hours (source: coinmarketcap.com)

On May 17, as CCN reported, the bitcoin price briefly plunged to $6,400 by more than 18 percent against the U.S. dollar.

Market eating up an 18% bitcoin drop quickly is a sign of positive sentiment

Analysts including Dovey Wan, a founding partner at Primitive, stated that the brief price drop of bitcoin on Friday was likely due to manipulation engaged by a single investor.

As the investor sold 5,000 BTC on Bitstamp, it triggered contracts on BitMEX, which heavily relies on Bitstamp, to get liquidated.

Since dropping to $6,400, in less than two days, the bitcoin price has recovered to $8,000, by more than 25 percent within a 48-hour span.

The immediate absorption of the $13 billion decline in the market capitalization of bitcoin demonstrates the significant improvement in the sentiment around the cryptocurrency market.

Speaking to CCN on May 13, a cryptocurrency trader with an online alias “Satoshi Flipper” said that bitcoin is likely to face healthy retracement in the near-term coming off of a rally from $5,000 to $8,000.

But, the trader emphasized that once the retracement occurs, the dominant cryptocurrency is on track to sustain its momentum over the medium to long-term considering the momentum of the market in recent weeks.

The trader said:

I’ve been definitely vocal about a healthy BTC retrace, but I do not believe it will be a drastic 30% retrace back into the $4k’s. Once we form a local top, I believe we will 10% at the most, then settle down sideways.

That is when we’ll have a real altcoin season that everyone is expecting. Upon the immediate retrace, altcoins will take a small hit, but then when BTC settles down sideways, altcoins will rebound in a huge way.

Similarly, in an exclusive interview with CCN, Three Arrows Capital CEO Su Zhu stated that the brief fall of bitcoin to $6,400, which led investors to be cautious about the short-term trend of the asset, is unlikely to lead to a full-blown retracement.

“This is a purely market structure related move, I expect it to be bought up extremely quickly,” Zhu said.

As suggested by some investors, the market quickly absorbed the abrupt decline in the bitcoin price on May 17 and with volumes across the board on the rise, the momentum of the asset is expected to be sustained.

The real 10 volume of bitcoin, which estimates the legitimate volume of the asset using the methodology created by Bitwise Asset Management, hovers at around $1 billion. In comparison, in March, the real 10 volume of bitcoin was at $270 million.

What catalysts are on the horizon?

According to Josh Rager, a cryptocurrency technical analyst, if bitcoin finds stability over the $8,200 level, the $9,000 region could be considered a reasonable target in the near-term.

“Bitcoin certainly looks to be pumping, now over previous resistance Price is near $8,000 & looks to be heading toward the $8,200 1D resistance (might consolidate prior) A close above $8,200 on the daily/weekly would be very bullish and would target $9,600+,” said Rager.

With the block reward halving expected to occur in May 2020, which historically has been a fundamental catalyst for bitcoin, and the custodial infrastructure supporting the asset class noticeably improving, the sentiment around the market may continue to progress in the upcoming weeks.

Click here for a real-time bitcoin price chart.

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MONERO Price Prediction: Long-term (XMR) Value Forecast – May 19

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Monero Schedules XMR Protocol Upgrade for October 18 in v0.13 Hard Fork

Monero Schedules XMR Protocol Upgrade for October 18 in v0.13 Hard Fork

  • The long-term outlook remains in the uptrend.
  • The two EMAs are strong support for bullish continuation with $120.00 on the card.

XMR/USD Long-term Trend: Bullish

Supply zone: $140.00, $180.00, $220.00
Demand zone: $40.00, $20.00, $10.00

XMR remains in a bullish trend in its long-term outlook. After breaking the upper supply area of the range the bulls have sustained the momentum up north. On May 16th May, the cryptocurrency was up at $97.00 in the supply area the first time since 12th November 2019.

While price was above the two EMAs in the daily chart on 16th May, It was a breakout at the 50-EMA in the weekly chart an indication of a possible rally in the long-term.

The market correction was necessary hence the drawdown to $77.51 in the demand area on 17th May with the rejection of further downward movement by the 10-EMA. This confirms the bullish continuation.

The new trading week began on a bullish note with price at $79.90 at the opening and currently up at $86.96 in the supply area an indication of more buying positions are been taken by traders

$120.00 in the supply area is on the horizon as the bulls kept pressure strong.

The views and opinion as expressed here do not reflect that of BitcoinExchangeGuide.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

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