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Bitcoin (BTC) Unlikely To Surmount $6,000 Until Late-2019, Historical Analyst Suggests

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Bitcoin May Remain Trapped Under $6,000 For Now


Analysts, like Crypto Rand, fully expect for Bitcoin (BTC) to soon break past the $6,000 resistance level. However, one analyst going by “Wusten” recently argued that if cryptocurrencies follow their historical long-term trends, BTC may remain trapped under $6,000 until late-2019 or even 2020.

In a recent Twitter post, Wusten noted that Bitcoin follows long-term (three or four year) cycles that see BTC rally parabolically higher each time. According to his analysis, Bitcoin has recently exited the capitulation phase, which saw the BTC chart print a “death cross” last April to fall to $3,150 by December, and has now entered the accumulation/consolidation phase.

If historical trends are followed, the recent golden cross, which saw the 50-day moving average cross above the 200-day moving average, will be a “fake out.” Wusten explains that Bitcoin will remain trapped under $6,400, which BTC traded around for many months last year, until October. By October, the analyst expects for cryptocurrencies enter “spring” and for BTC to see an actual breakout, marked by a bonafide golden cross. Wusten isn’t the first to claim that months of accumulation are in Bitcoin’s future.

In a tweet posted after Bitcoin’s surge past $5,000 on April 1st/2nd, Josh Rager, a popular trader, explained that in BTC’s previous cycle, it took “216 days for accumulation from the bottom to spring.” As of the time of his tweet, Bitcoin had only experienced 113 days of accumulation. And as such, Rager noted that for historical trends to be satisfied, BTC could remain trapped within a tight range until July 19th, 2019.

Even a prominent Bitcoin fund, Adamant Capital, chimed in on the matter. As reported by Ethereum World News, the fund, headed by Tuur Demeester and Michiel Lescrauwaet, wrote that considering a number of indicators, long-term trends, and underlying development, Bitcoin has likely entered its “accumulation phase.” They didn’t divulge when cryptocurrencies would exit this part of their life, but they noted that a final bottom has likely been established.

Where’s BTC Heading In The Short Run?

If Bitcoin is following historical precedent, what will BTC do next? According to two prominent analysts, Brian “The Rational Investor” Beamish and the ill-titled Magic Poop Cannon, a move to re-test yearly lows could be possible.

As depicted below (chart courtesy of Beamish), Bitcoin’s price action in 2017 was evidently a “blow off top” and 2018’s was “the hangover,” two macro trends seen in the previous bubble. If Bitcoin continues to follow its trend, 2019 will see BTC rally tremendously, but not without another influx of capitulation first. Beamish suggests that a move to near December 2018’s levels will come in the coming months, potentially as soon as June.

And as Magic Poop Cannon remarked, Bitcoin’s current price action, the 50-week exponential moving average, 50- and 200-day moving averages, Fibonacci retracement levels, and Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings are all looking eerily similar in structure to that seen in mid-July 2015. And thus he wrote that if BTC tracks its historical trend, the golden cross will form (check), a trading range of $5,000 to $5,300 will hold until May 7th (check), and will collapse to $4,025 by the end of May.

Title Image Courtesy of Icons8 Team Via Unsplash 

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Robinhood Opens Trading for 7 Cryptocurrencies in New York

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Robinhood, the popular stock and crypto investing app, has officially launched bitcoin, ethereum, and other cryptocurrency trading in New York.

Silicon Valley-based Robinhood received a BitLicense from the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) in January 2019 and on Thursday opened access to crypto trading in the Empire State.

From the press release:

Currently, you can invest in seven cryptocurrencies on Robinhood Crypto: Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Litecoin, and Dogecoin. You can also track price movements and news for those and 10 additional cryptocurrencies.

New York is unique and problematic for crypto traders because all purveyors must apply for a BitLicense, most notably for companies that are “storing, holding, or maintaining custody or control of virtual currency on behalf of others,” according to NYDFS.

Many crypto startups have avoided the requirements entirely by becoming BitLicense refugees and refusing to do business in the state.

“Here we are two miles from the Statue of Liberty and you cannot sell CryptoKitties in the state without that license. That’s the absurdity of what’s happened here,” ShapeShift CEO Erik Voorhees complained in 2018 when asked about the controversial license at CoinDesk’s Consensus conference in New York.

Image courtesy of Robinhood

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Generation Bitcoin: 90% of Millennials Prefer Crypto to Gold: ETF Expert

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By CCN: The US investing industry stands on the precipice of a dramatic upheaval that could see bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets replace gold in investor portfolios.

That’s according to Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, an independent investment advisor. He revealed in a Bloomberg TV interview that his millennial clients are clamoring to hold bitcoin in their portfolios – if only the SEC would let them.

Crypto in a Landslide: ETF Expert Says Millennials Plan to Kick Gold to the Curb

Responding to a question from Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas about whether he would ever invest client funds in a bitcoin ETF, Geraci stunned his fellow panel members when he said that millennial investors overwhelmingly desire to hold bitcoin instead of traditional hedge assets like gold.

How overwhelming? Ninety percent.

“When we talk to our younger clients – we have a core gold allocation in our portfolios, and they’ll ask about that and say, ‘What about crypto?’ And if you talk to, primarily millennials, and ask them which they prefer, bitcoin or gold, it’s a landslide. It’s not even close, it’s like 90% prefer bitcoin.”

Geraci’s bold claim was more anecdotal than scientific, but there’s plenty of hard data that demonstrates that younger investors are vastly more comfortable with holding cryptocurrency in their portfolios than investors who grew up in the pre-digital era.

In April, a Harris Poll survey found that 18 to 34-year-olds are “very” or “somewhat” likely to purchase bitcoin within the next five years. That might not seem overwhelming, but consider that only 37% of Americans in that demographic currently own stocks.

Similarly, a February eToro survey found that 43% of millennials trust crypto exchanges more than stock exchanges, even though crypto trading platform hacks dominate the mainstream news cycle.

ETF Would Reduce Crypto Investing Risks

bitcoin etf vaneck bitcoin price

ETF Store President Nate Geraci said that there is rabid demand for a bitcoin ETF, especially among millennials. | Source: Shutterstock

Nate Geraci further pointed to the success of the $1.5 billion Bitcoin Investment Trust (OTC: GBTC) as proof that there is sufficient market demand for a crypto ETF.

He noted that the over-the-counter product regularly trades at a staggering premium to the underlying value of its BTC assets. That’s because GBTC shares fluctuate based on supply and demand, not just the price of bitcoin. An ETF, he said, would flatten that premium and thus reduce investor risk.

“It seems a bit incongruent to me that we have that product out there trading, where investors really could get hurt if they don’t understand that premium, but we don’t have a bitcoin ETF.”

“The demand is there,” he concluded.

SEC Kicks the Bitcoin ETF Can Down the Road

Unfortunately for crypto bulls, millennials aren’t the ones manipulating the levers of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which holds unilateral authority to approve or deny bitcoin ETF applications.

The SEC, as CCN reported, continues to punt on the issue. Last week, the regulatory agency extended its long trend of delaying ruling on cryptocurrency products when it postponed its decision on the VanEck/SolidX Bitcoin ETF to August 19. Most industry insiders expect the SEC to delay the VanEck/SolidX product again, pushing its final ruling until October 18.

Dave Nadig, the managing director of ETF.com, said that he believes the SEC is still in “information gathering mode” but that there is a “reasonable chance” regulators approve the first bitcoin ETF before the end of 2019.

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Ripple Price Analysis: XRP Lost Critical 5000 SAT Support Area – What’s Next?

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Ripple’s XRP has seen a price decline totaling 6% over the past 24 hours of trading, bringing the current price for the coin down to around $0.3754 at press time. The cryptocurrency has lost a further 16% over the past 7 trading days.

This price drop largely is due to the retracement seen in Bitcoin, although XRP also has seen difficulty when priced against Bitcoin.

XRP currently is ranked in 3d place amongst the top cryptocurrency projects by market cap value, holding a $15.89 billion market cap, according to CoinMarketCap at time of publication. 

Looking at the XRP/USD 1-Day Chart:

  • Since our previous XRP/USD analysis, we can see that XRP/USD has fallen further from the $0.39 level, to where it currently is trading at around $0.375. XRP has strong resistance beneath it provided by the 200-day moving average around the $0.3615 level.
  • From above: The nearest levels of resistance lie at $0.3790 and $0.3943. If the bulls can continue further above $0.40, higher resistance can be located at $0.4235, $0.4376 and $0.4617. Above this, further resistance lies at $0.48 and $0.50.
  • From below: The nearest level of support now sits between $0.36 and $0.35. Beneath $0.35, further support is located at $0.34, $0.32 and $0.30.
  • Trading volume has dropped significantly from the average level seen during May 2019.
  • The RSI is in a precarious position as it hovers around the 50 level which indicates indecision within the market. If the RSI drops beneath 50, we can expect XRP/USD to head lower.

xrpusd_may23-min

Looking at the XRP/BTC 1-Day Chart:

  • Against Bitcoin, we can see XRP/BTC has now dropped further beneath the support at 5000 SAT to where it currently trades at press time, around 4850 SAT.
  • From above: The nearest level of resistance now sits at 4910 SAT, 5000 SAT and 5090 SAT. Above 5100 SAT, further resistance exists at 5571 SAT, 5962 SAT and 6000 SAT.
  • From below: The nearest level of support lies at 4731 SAT. Beneath this, further support is expected at 4500 SAT, 4323 SAT and 4000 SAT.
  • Trading volume has also significantly declined toward the second half of May 2019.
  • The Stochastic RSI suggests that price action will head further lower due to a bearish crossover in overbought conditions.

xrpbtc_may23-min

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Ripple Price Analysis: XRP Lost Critical 5000 SAT Support Area – What’s Next?

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Ripple’s XRP has seen a price decline totaling 6% over the past 24 hours of trading, bringing the current price for the coin down to around $0.3754 at press time. The cryptocurrency has lost a further 16% over the past 7 trading days.

This price drop largely is due to the retracement seen in Bitcoin, although XRP also has seen difficulty when priced against Bitcoin.

XRP currently is ranked in 3d place amongst the top cryptocurrency projects by market cap value, holding a $15.89 billion market cap, according to CoinMarketCap at time of publication. 

Looking at the XRP/USD 1-Day Chart:

  • Since our previous XRP/USD analysis, we can see that XRP/USD has fallen further from the $0.39 level, to where it currently is trading at around $0.375. XRP has strong resistance beneath it provided by the 200-day moving average around the $0.3615 level.
  • From above: The nearest levels of resistance lie at $0.3790 and $0.3943. If the bulls can continue further above $0.40, higher resistance can be located at $0.4235, $0.4376 and $0.4617. Above this, further resistance lies at $0.48 and $0.50.
  • From below: The nearest level of support now sits between $0.36 and $0.35. Beneath $0.35, further support is located at $0.34, $0.32 and $0.30.
  • Trading volume has dropped significantly from the average level seen during May 2019.
  • The RSI is in a precarious position as it hovers around the 50 level which indicates indecision within the market. If the RSI drops beneath 50, we can expect XRP/USD to head lower.

xrpusd_may23-min

Looking at the XRP/BTC 1-Day Chart:

  • Against Bitcoin, we can see XRP/BTC has now dropped further beneath the support at 5000 SAT to where it currently trades at press time, around 4850 SAT.
  • From above: The nearest level of resistance now sits at 4910 SAT, 5000 SAT and 5090 SAT. Above 5100 SAT, further resistance exists at 5571 SAT, 5962 SAT and 6000 SAT.
  • From below: The nearest level of support lies at 4731 SAT. Beneath this, further support is expected at 4500 SAT, 4323 SAT and 4000 SAT.
  • Trading volume has also significantly declined toward the second half of May 2019.
  • The Stochastic RSI suggests that price action will head further lower due to a bearish crossover in overbought conditions.

xrpbtc_may23-min

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Blockchain Firm Raises $4 Million From Draper’s VC Fund to Provide Uncensorable Domains

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San Francisco-based blockchain domains firm Unstoppable Domains has secured $4 million in a funding round backed by venture capitalist Tim Draper, co-founder Brad Kam told Cointelegraph in an email on May 23.

Following a $730,000 seed round led by investment firm Boost VC, Unstoppable Domains has carried out a Series A round led by venture capital fund Draper Associates. The previous investment was completed in December 2018, a press release notes.

The new investment funds will be used in the company’s mission to provide blockchain-powered uncensorable websites, as well as simple payments in major cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin (BTC), ethereum (ETH), litecoin (LTC) and others.

By bringing blockchain to the domains industry, Unstoppable Domains intends to “spread free speech around the world,” decentralizing domain names and websites that cannot be controlled by a third party, Draper said in the announcement.

Similar to a cryptocurrency stored in a digital wallet, Unstoppable Domains’ websites are stored in a user’s wallet, while the content is stored on the InterPlanetary File System (IPFS) or other decentralized storage networks.

Unstoppable Domains also plans to incorporate blockchain domains with users’ crypto addresses. The company reportedly allows users to replace a wallet’s address with their short domain name that claims to enable simple transactions in crypto.

Recently, electronics supplier Bosch expressed the company’s willingness to take an active position in protecting the openness of the Internet of Things against censorship.

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